Senator Mark Daly
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    • A Cead Mile Failte to the US Ambassador to Ireland, Claire Cronin
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 Northern Ireland’s Income & Expenditure in a reunification scenario with IMF Expert 


A full transcript of the report is available here: Northern Ireland Income & Expenditure Report.pdf

One of the key recommendations in the 2017 Joint Committee report was to ascertain the true level of income and expenditure for Northern Ireland. In 2018 Mark compiled a research report with Gunther Thumann, the Senior Economist at the German desk of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during German reunification. Our report shows that Northern Ireland starts on a near balanced budget in a unification scenario. The full report can be accessed through the link above.

​Executive Summary

The first ever report to look at the issues, policies and planning required for the peaceful unity of Ireland and her people by a committee of the Dáil or Seanad was written by Senator Mark Daly and adopted unanimously in 2017 by the Joint Oireachtas Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement. This report was entitled ‘Brexit & the Future of Ireland Uniting Ireland & its People in Peace & Prosperity’.
One of the key recommendations of that report was to ascertain the true level of the income and expenditure for Northern Ireland.

There are few economists in the world with first-hand knowledge and experience of Reunification. Gunther Thumann is one such individual; he worked as a senior economist at the German desk of the International Monetary Fund at the time of German reunification. This provided him with the analytical understanding of the complex economic developments as they happened. In the second half of the 1990s, he had several opportunities to talk privately with Chancellor Helmut Kohl about his assessment of the politics of German Re-Unification.

On the 14th of June 2018 Senator Mark Daly proposed to a meeting of the Joint Committee on the implementation of the Good Friday Agreement that he and Gunther Thumann compile a report on the true income and expenditure of Northern Ireland in a reunification situation. They have compiled this research which also analyses Ireland’s place in the world in various global indexes and its performance since independence.
Senator Mark Daly worked with Gunther Thumann and together they have examined the information available. This information shows that, in fact, the current reported deficit for the Northern Ireland budget could come close to a balanced budget in a re-unification scenario. Today, people take German Unification for granted but, as Thumann observes, at the time in 1989/90 it was far from certain as to what the outcome would be as a result of the falling of the Berlin Wall.

“I am amazed how many Germans these days seem to take Re-Unification for granted. We should not forget that the developments that started in 1989 could have turned out very differently: Russian tanks might have intervened in October-November 1989; the German political leadership might have pursued a less rigorous solution; the Allied Powers might have opposed Re-Unification; frustration among east Germans (“progress too slow”) or west Germans (“costs too high”) might have gained the upper hand. But perhaps we should look at it differently: The fact that people take Re-Unification for granted reflects its success.”
For the purpose of this research, Thumann has given a brief which has been included in full at the end of this research as to the timeline of events in German Re-Unification. The outline of what could have happened and his conclusions and the lessons for Ireland in its unification process are also set out.

The core lesson for Ireland in its re-unification process is that the outcome is something that can only be achieved by hard work, careful planning and implementation. As John Bradley in his paper ‘Towards an All Island Economy’ presented at Queens University Belfast pointed out “The extreme importance of strategic economic plannig policy errors or policy neglect seldom goes unpunished”.
Congressman Brendan Boyle commissioned the United States Congressional Research Service to look at the income and expenditure for Northern Ireland. They produced a report entitled ‘Northern Ireland Budgetary Issues’. The United States Congressional Research Service report breaks down Northern Ireland’s expenditure into identifiable expenditure, non-identifiable expenditure and accounting adjustment.
Thumann and Daly have looked at the Congressional research report and make the point that included in identifiable expenditure in Northern Ireland 2012-13 Social Protection budget is pensions accounting for £2.8 billion. These would initially be the responsibility of the British Government as the pension liability was accrued while Northern Ireland was part of the United Kingdom.

Congressman Boyle’s report explains, non-identifiable expenditure of £2.9billion includes Defence Expenditure and UK Debt Interest. These would not be a liability of a new unified Ireland. Thumann explains that not all the accounting adjustments figure of £1.1billion would be applicable in a reunification scenario. Also the convergence of the public service numbers between the north and the south would bring a saving of £1.7billion per annum in the current budget expenditure of Northern Ireland.

Taking the above adjustments and savings into account the cumulative figure is £8.5 billion. With the reported deficit for Northern Ireland is at £9.2 billion therefore the current income and expenditure figure for Northern Ireland comes near a balanced budget in a reunification scenario. This is of course before taking into account the likely potential for growth in Northern Ireland following unification as happened in East Germany following its reunification and to eastern European countries on their accession to the EU.

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  • Home
  • About
    • About Mark
    • Role of Cathaoirleach
    • Contact
  • Seanad Éireann
    • Latest News/Speeches
    • Renewal and Reform
  • Seanad 100
    • Seanad 100 Launch
    • Seanad 100 Exhibit
    • Interview with Eolas Magazine
  • Shared Ireland
    • Article from The Economist Magazine on a United Ireland
    • Research Reports >
      • Uniting Ireland & its people in Peace & Prosperity Brexit & the Future of Ireland
      • Unionist Concerns & Fears of a United Ireland
      • Northern Ireland’s Income & Expenditure in a reunification scenario
      • The Calling of a Referendum on a United Ireland by the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
      • Northern Ireland Returning to Violence due to a Hard Border as a result of Brexit or a Rushed Border Poll: Risk to Youth
      • Submissions to the National Risk Assessment 2019 from Deputy Seán Fleming & Senator Mark Daly
  • Decade of Commemorations
    • Member of the All-Party Consultation Group on Commemorations
    • Washington Monument to Receive Commemorative Plaque from Ireland
    • Over 4,000 secondary school students receive National Flag
    • Senator Mark Daly works with world famous Smithsonian Museum
    • Biggest Bridge in the State renamed for Thomas F Meagher
    • Rapporteur of Seanad Public Consultation on National Anthem
    • Irish Flag can now be flown at night
  • Kerry
    • Kenmare Hospital
    • Kenmare Peninsula Park
    • Marine Rescue Coordination Centres saved from closure
    • €200,000 of lottery funding secured for Cystic Fibrosis Unit
    • Red Tape Report in order to create jobs
  • Diaspora
    • A Cead Mile Failte to the US Ambassador to Ireland, Claire Cronin
    • Senator Daly Appointed as Spokesperson for Diaspora Affairs
    • Senator Daly Publishes the First Policy by any Political Party for the Irish Overseas and Diaspora
    • Irish Oak Tree Ceremony on Capitol Hill DC to Commemorate the 1916 Rising organised by Senator Daly
    • Certificate of Irish Heritage taken from Concept to White House with the help of Senator Daly
    • Direct Flights from Dublin to San Francisco reinstated
    • American Irish Legislators of New York 40th Anniversary Webinar
  • Irish Sign Language Rights
    • Irish Sign Langauge Law
    • Irish Sign Language National Anthem
  • Irish Sign Language National Anthem St Patricks Day Challenge
  • Gardens of Remembrance Brochure
  • Gardens of Remembrance & Reflection